Assessing Urban Heat Island Intensity and Vulnerability in a Rapidly Expanding Coastal City Using Remote Sensing and GIS.

Project Abstract

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity and vulnerability in a rapidly expanding coastal city by integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and socioeconomic datasets. Grounded in a multi-scalar framework, the research analyzes thermal patterns derived from Landsat and Sentinel-2 thermal infrared bands, complemented by high-resolution urban morphology, land use/land cover (LULC) classifications, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) metrics to quantify UHI magnitude across different urban forms and land covers. Temporal analyses cover a decade to capture rapid urbanization effects, seasonal variations, and intra-urban temperature gradients, while diurnal assessments reveal nocturnal cooling dynamics and anthropogenic heat contributions. The study introduces a vulnerability index that merges thermal exposure with population density, age structure, income levels, housing quality, and access to cooling infrastructure to identify highly susceptible neighborhoods. Advanced spatial statistics, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and hot spot analysis, are employed to discern the relationships between surface urban heat and drivers such as built-up intensity, impervious surface fraction, albedo, green space distribution, proximity to the coastline, and coastal climate modifiers. A key methodological contribution is the development of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework that integrates thermal indicators with social-ecological resilience indicators to map priority intervention zones. Scenario modeling explores the potential impacts of green infrastructure deployment (e.g., urban trees, green roofs, and parks), enhanced albedo surfaces, and blue-green corridors on mitigating UHI intensity and reducing vulnerability under projected urban growth trajectories and climate warming. Results indicate pronounced UHI effects in dense commercial and industrial cores, with pronounced edge effects near waterfront areas where sea breeze attenuation interacts with architectural heat retention. LULC transitions from vegetation to impervious surfaces strongly correlate with higher daytime temperatures, while increased nocturnal warming aligns with reduced air flow in poorly ventilated districts. The vulnerability assessment reveals that low-income communities and elderly populations experience disproportionate exposure to elevated temperatures, underscoring the need for equitable adaptation strategies. Policy implications highlight the effectiveness of nature-based solutions, targeted retrofit of building envelopes, and the integration of cooling strategies into urban planning and coastal management. The study also discusses limitations related to the spatial resolution of thermal data, the challenge of separating surface temperature from air temperature, and the need for continuous validation with land-based meteorological observations. Overall, the research demonstrates the utility of a GIS- and remote sensing–driven framework for diagnosing UHI vulnerability in rapidly urbanizing coastal cities and provides actionable, location-specific guidance for planners and policymakers to enhance urban resilience to climate stressors while promoting sustainable coastal development.

Project Overview

What This Project Is About

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A plain-language look at how cities heat up and how access to heat is uneven across neighborhoods. The project uses simple maps and basic data from satellites to study how urban areas trap heat and who is most affected in a growing coastal city.

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The Problem It Addresses

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Cities often become hotter than rural areas, a problem called the Urban Heat Island effect. Rapid coastal growth can worsen this, especially for vulnerable groups who lack shade, cooling, or green spaces. This project fills gaps in local data and shows who is at risk and where.

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Objectives of the Project

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1. Describe what Urban Heat Island means in the local city context.
2. Identify areas with higher temperatures using simple remote sensing data.
3. Assess how vulnerable populations are exposed to heat.
4. Map hot spots and potential cooling strategies.
5. Provide practical recommendations for planners and communities.

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What You Will Do Step by Step

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1. Review basic literature on Urban Heat Island and GIS terms.
2. Collect accessible temperature data from satellite sources and weather stations.
3. Create easy-to-read heat maps and overlay population or land-use data.
4. Evaluate which neighborhoods are most affected and why (e.g., materials, lack of trees).
5. Discuss simple cooling options like trees, shade, and reflective surfaces.

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Expected Outcome

A clear set of heat maps, a short report explaining who is most at risk, and practical, low-cost cooling ideas for the city to consider.