Assessing the impacts of urbanization on peri-urban land use change and groundwater recharge dynamics in [Region] using remote sensing and GIS (1990–2024)

Project Abstract

Urbanization in peri-urban zones has accelerated rapidly over the past three decades, transforming land use patterns, hydrological processes, and groundwater recharge dynamics in [Region]. This study investigates the spatiotemporal impacts of urban growth on peri-urban land use change and its implications for groundwater recharge using a multi-temporal remote sensing and GIS framework spanning 1990–2024. Landsat imagery and high-resolution ancillary data were integrated to map land use/land cover (LULC) changes, quantify urban expansion rates, and classify peri-urban categories (agriculture, forest, scrub, built-up, and water bodies). A robust change detection approach, complemented by landscape metrics and transition matrices, reveals shifts from predominantly agricultural and vegetated cover to dense built-up and impervious surfaces, with notable fragmentation of natural patches and reduction in permeability in critical recharge zones. Groundwater recharge dynamics were estimated through a composite recharge model that combines percolation flux estimates with soil hydraulic properties, land cover–dependent infiltration coefficients, and rainfall data from 1990 to 2024. The model was calibrated and validated using historical groundwater level observations, borehole yield records, and aquifer characterizations, enabling an assessment of temporal trends in recharge under varying urbanization pressures. Results indicate a significant decline in estimated recharge rates in peri-urban zones coinciding with accelerated urban expansion, particularly in areas experiencing abrupt surges in impervious surface cover and reduced vegetative interception. Spatial analysis demonstrates that recharge reductions are heterogeneously distributed, with the most pronounced declines occurring in low-lying floodplains and valley bottoms where urban sprawl disrupts natural hydrological pathways. The study also explores secondary effects, including altered groundwater-surface water interactions, increased surface runoff, heightened pollution loading, and potential implications for groundwater sustainability and water supply resilience. Sensitivity analyses highlight the relative influence of land cover change, soil type, rainfall variability, and aquifer properties on recharge outcomes, providing a quantifiable framework for scenario testing under alternative urban planning trajectories. Policy-relevant insights emerge, emphasizing the need for green infrastructure integration, infiltration-promoting zoning regulations, and restoration of permeable surfaces in peri-urban developments to mitigate adverse recharge losses. The research contributes methodologically by coupling high-resolution LULC change detection with a physically informed recharge estimator adaptable to data-constrained contexts, and it advances region-specific knowledge necessary for long-term groundwater management in the face of ongoing urbanization. Finally, the study identifies key data gaps and recommends longitudinal monitoring networks, including remote sensing-based soil moisture proxies and distributed aquifer tests, to support adaptive management of peri-urban water resources in [Region].

Project Overview

What This Project Is About

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A straightforward overview of how cities grow into nearby areas and how this growth affects land surfaces and groundwater. The project looks at a specific region from 1990 to 2024 to see where land use changed (like farms or forests becoming buildings) and how those changes might alter how water soaks into the ground.

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The Problem It Addresses

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Urban expansion often replaces natural or agricultural land, which can change drainage, reduce groundwater recharge, and affect local water supplies. There is a need to connect visible changes in land use with underlying water dynamics to guide planning and conservation.

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Objectives of the Project

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1. Identify major land-use changes in peri-urban areas between 1990 and 2024.
2. Assess how these changes influence groundwater recharge potential.
3. Map areas most at risk of reduced groundwater availability.
4. Provide recommendations for sustainable land-use planning.

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What You Will Do Step by Step

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1) Define the study region and gather historical data from maps, satellites, and local sources. 2) Use simple, readable criteria to classify land into categories (e.g., forest, agriculture, built-up). 3) Compare maps from 1990, 2004, 2018, 2024 to see changes. 4) Explain groundwater recharge basics in plain terms and relate them to surface changes. 5) Run basic comparisons to link land changes with recharge estimates. 6) Identify priority areas for conservation or smart development. 7) Summarize findings in clear maps and short explanations.

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Expected Outcome

Clear, easy-to-understand results showing where land use has changed and where groundwater recharge could be affected. The project will yield simple maps and practical recommendations to help planners balance growth with water protection.