Assessing the Impacts of Transit-Oriented Development on Urban Form and Housing Affordability in a Medium-Sized City

Project Abstract

This study investigates how Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) influences urban form configurations and housing affordability in a medium-sized city, with a mixed-methods approach combining accessibility analysis, land-use and zoning review, empirical housing market data, and stakeholder interviews. The research identifies how TOD strategies centered around high-frequency transit corridors reshape street networks, land-use patterns, and built form, including street connectivity, block density, and mixed-use intensities, and examines the resultant effects on housing costs, rental dynamics, and displacement risks across different neighborhoods. A comparative temporal analysis utilizes GIS-based morphometrics and space-time econometrics to quantify changes in residential density, floor-area-ratio distributions, and population growth patterns relative to transit station catchments over a 15-year horizon, capturing pre- and post-TOD implementation phases. The study integrates qualitative insights from planners, developers, community organizations, and residents to contextualize quantitative findings, exploring governance arrangements, financing mechanisms, and policy instruments that enable or constrain TOD realization. Key indicators include housing affordability indices, rent-to-income ratios, tenure composition shifts, and accessibility measures to job-rich destinations, educational facilities, healthcare, and amenities. The research also assesses social equity implications by disaggregating outcomes by income, tenure, age, and race/ethnicity, and evaluates environmental externalities such as vehicle kilometres traveled (VKT), greenhouse gas emissions, and green space accessibility associated with TOD-inflected urban form. A critical appraisal of the planning framework, zoning regulations, parking policies, and public-private partnership models reveals barriers to affordable housing delivery within TOD precincts, as well as opportunities for inclusive growth through density bonuses, value capture mechanisms, and public realm investments. The methodology includes a diachronic case study of a flagship TOD corridor, supplemented by cross-case comparisons with adjacent non-TOD neighborhoods to isolate causal linkages between TOD features and observed affordability outcomes. Findings are expected to show nuanced trade-offs where higher density and mixed-use intensification near transit improve access to employment and reduce travel costs, yet may exacerbate near-station housing pressures if not paired with strong inclusionary zoning and anti-displacement strategies. The study contributes to urban planning theory by unpacking the interdependencies between transit provisioning, land-use evolution, and housing markets in mid-sized cities, offering a transferable analytical framework for evaluating TOD performance. Policy recommendations emphasize targeted affordability-preserving mechanisms, design-led street reconfigurations, and data-informed governance practices to balance mobility, housing, and livability objectives while ensuring long-term resilience and social equity. The anticipated outcomes will inform municipal decision-makers, practitioners, and scholars seeking to optimize TOD implementations in similar urban contexts.

Project Overview

What This Project Is About

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A plain-language overview of how cities grow around key transit hubs and how this affects land use and housing costs. The project examines whether building residential and commercial areas near transit stations changes urban form—like street patterns, density, and land use—and whether it helps make housing more affordable or more expensive in a medium-sized city. It looks at connections between transit access, neighborhood character, and the cost of living for residents.

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The Problem It Addresses

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Urban areas often invest in transit to reduce traffic and pollution, but the effects on housing costs and neighborhood design are mixed. This project tackles the gap in understanding how transit-oriented development changes who can afford to live near transit, how neighborhoods change visually and functionally, and what policies might make benefits more widely shared.

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Objectives of the Project

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1. Describe current transit access and patterns in the city.
2. Assess changes in urban form around transit stations (density, land use, and street layout).
3. Analyze housing affordability trends near transit versus farther away.
4. Identify policy tools that promote affordable housing near transit.
5. Provide practical recommendations for planners and decision-makers.

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What You Will Do Step by Step

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1. Review existing studies on transit-oriented development and housing affordability.
2. Map transit services and collect city zoning and land-use data.
3. Compare neighborhoods near stations with those farther away to observe differences in density and uses.
4. Analyze housing price and rent data to gauge affordability trends near transit.
5. Interview planners or analyze policy documents to understand local strategies.
6. Synthesize findings into clear patterns and potential policy options.

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Expected Outcome

1. A concise understanding of how transit-oriented development affects urban form and housing costs in a medium-sized city.
2. Practical recommendations for making transit investments beneficial for a broad range of residents.