Assessing the effectiveness of community-based mangrove restoration on coastal resilience and carbon sequestration under varying climate scenarios

Project Abstract

This study evaluates how community-driven mangrove restoration projects influence coastal resilience and carbon sequestration under a range of climate scenarios, integrating ecological, social, and atmospheric data to inform scalable conservation strategies. We combine field measurements of mangrove health, growth rates, soil organic carbon, and root biomass with remote sensing-derived canopy structure, shoreline change, and tidal dynamics to quantify ecosystem services across restored, degraded, and reference sites along a selected coastline. A mixed-methods approach is employed quantitative analyses estimate carbon stocks using allometric equations and soil core sampling, while resilience is assessed through indicators such as shoreline protection, habitat connectivity, flood mitigation, and sediment stabilization under projected sea-level rise, storm surge frequencies, and rainfall variability derived from regional climate models (RCMs). Social-ecological integration is achieved via participatory appraisal with local communities to document participation, governance, livelihood benefits, and adaptive management practices, enabling an assessment of how community stewardship moderates restoration success and maintenance. The research examines climate-sensitive drivers including salinity intrusion, tidal inundation depth, sediment supply, and nutrient flux, and evaluates differential performances across mangrove species assemblages, planting densities, and restoration methodologies. Statistical models quantify relationships between restoration intensity, community engagement, and observed outcomes in carbon sequestration and resilience metrics, while scenario analyses project long-term trajectories under low, moderate, and high emission pathways. Life cycle considerations include the downstream effects of restoration on fisheries productivity, biodiversity indices, and non-timber forest product incomes, as well as potential trade-offs between rapid carbon gains and local livelihood needs. Uncertainty analysis incorporates variability in climate projections, natural disturbance regimes, and socio-economic factors to identify robust management strategies. A key objective is to determine thresholds of community involvement and ecological design that optimize both carbon storage and coastal protection without compromising livelihoods. The study also evaluates policy implications for integrating community-based restoration into national climate mitigation and adaptation plans, highlighting funding mechanisms, governance structures, and monitoring frameworks that enable adaptive management. Findings are expected to show that community-led mangrove restoration enhances shoreline stability, increases sediment accretion, and expands carbon pools in both biomass and soil components, with magnified effects in mosaicked landscapes combining natural regeneration and active planting. However, outcomes are contingent on hydrological conditions, seedling survivorship, and sustained community commitment, underscoring the need for co-management models, capacity-building, and long-term monitoring to translate ecological gains into resilient coastal livelihoods under changing climate regimes. The study contributes a replicable assessment framework for integrating ecological performance with social governance to optimize mangrove restoration as a nature-based solution for climate resilience and carbon management.

Project Overview

What This Project Is About

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A plain-language overview of the topic and what the project investigates.

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The Problem It Addresses

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What problem or gap this project tackles and why it matters to the field or society.

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Objectives of the Project

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1. Identify how mangrove restoration affects coastal resilience to storms and flooding.
2. Measure changes in carbon sequestration associated with restored mangrove areas.
3. Compare community-led approaches with practitioner-led methods in terms of effectiveness and costs.
4. Assess social benefits, such as livelihoods and local engagement, linked to restoration.

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What You Will Do Step by Step

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Step 1: Review existing literature on mangroves and climate resilience.

Step 2: Map study sites and work with local communities to implement restoration actions.

Step 3: Collect data on vegetation growth, soil carbon, and hydrology before and after restoration.

Step 4: Analyze data to assess changes in resilience indicators and carbon storage.

Step 5: Compare different community approaches and document costs and benefits.

Step 6: Discuss findings with stakeholders and propose guidelines for best practices.

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Expected Outcome

Clear evidence on how community-led mangrove restoration improves coastal protection and increases carbon storage, with practical recommendations for policy, funding, and community engagement.