Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge Dynamics in an Endorheic Basin Using Remote Sensing and Geophysical Methods

Project Abstract

This study investigates the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge dynamics within an endorheic basin by integrating remote sensing data, hydrogeophysical surveys, and hydrological modeling to quantify spatial and temporal variations in recharge processes. The research adopts a multidisciplinary framework combining satellite-derived precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, land surface temperature, and gravity recovery data with geophysical subsurface imaging (electrical resistivity tomography and magnetotellurics) to characterize aquifer properties, recharge pathways, and pore water evolution under shifting climate regimes. A baseline period (2000–2014) establishes historical recharge patterns, followed by an analysis of recent climatic shifts (2015–2024) to detect anomalies in recharge rates, flow direction, and groundwater storage changes. Data fusion techniques, including Bayesian data assimilation and machine learning emulators, are employed to couple surface fluxes with subsurface drivers, thereby reducing uncertainties inherent in endorheic systems with closed basins and limited external outflow. The methodology begins with constructing a gridded climate and hydrological dataset from MODIS, Landsat, GRACE/GRACE-FO, ERA5 reanalysis, and local meteorological records, enabling estimation of recharge fluxes through soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models and groundwater age dating. Geophysical surveys delineate aquifer geometry, heterogeneity, salinity gradients, and hydraulic conductivity distribution, which constrain groundwater flow simulations. A physically based distributed recharge model is integrated with a variably saturated flow simulator to reproduce recharge infiltration, percolation, and capillary rise within a heterogeneous soil column and fractured media typical of endorheic basins. The study assesses potential tipping points where reduced infiltration due to increasing aridity, higher evapotranspiration, or intensified rainfall events cause nonlinear responses in groundwater storage and quality. Key findings focus on (i) spatial hotspots and temporal trends of recharge linked to land cover change, vegetation dynamics, and surface moisture, (ii) identification of main recharge pathways such as vertical infiltration versus preferential flow through fractures, (iii) alterations in groundwater head and storage across hydrogeologic units, and (iv) shifts in salinity regimes correlated with recharge variability and reduced freshwater input. Sensitivity analyses evaluate the relative influence of climate forcings, subsurface properties, and boundary conditions on recharge resilience. Scenarios project future recharge under representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways, highlighting vulnerability hotspots and adaptation strategies, including sustainable groundwater management, recharge augmentation, and land-use planning. The study delivers an integrated methodological framework for monitoring and predicting recharge dynamics in endorheic basins under climate change, with transferable protocols for data assimilation, multi-physics coupling, and uncertainty quantification that can be applied to other arid and semi-arid regions facing similar hydrological constraints.

Project Overview

What This Project Is About

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A plain-language overview of how climate and weather changes affect groundwater in a closed basin, using satellite images and simple field measurements to understand how water moves underground over time. The project combines easy-to-understand remote sensing concepts with basic geophysical ideas to see how recharge patterns respond to drier or wetter conditions.

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The Problem It Addresses

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In endorheic basins, groundwater can rise or fall based on rainfall, evaporation, and human use, but long-term trends are hard to track with sparse data. This project fills a knowledge gap by linking climate signals to recharge dynamics, helping communities plan water use and protect groundwater resources.

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Objectives of the Project

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1. Describe how climate change could affect rainfall and evaporation in the basin.
2. Explain what groundwater recharge is in simple terms and why it matters here.
3. Show how satellite data can indicate changes in groundwater over time.
4. Demonstrate how a basic geophysical method can reveal underground water movement.
5. Provide a clear, usable picture of recharge trends for decision-making.

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What You Will Do Step by Step

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1. Review basic concepts of groundwater and endorheic basins in plain language.
2. Gather accessible satellite images and literature on climate trends for the study area.
3. Process data to identify changes in indicators related to recharge (e.g., surface moisture, rainfall proxies).
4. Apply a simple geophysical approach to infer subsurface water movement where possible.
5. Compare recharge indicators across time periods to spot trends.
6. Interpret results with attention to uncertainty and limitations.
7. Prepare visuals and a concise summary for stakeholders.

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Expected Outcome

A straightforward assessment of how groundwater recharge in the basin is responding to climate-related changes, with clear visuals and practical implications for water management and policy.