Short-term electric power forecast in the nigerian power system using artificial neural network

 

Table Of Contents


Chapter ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1Introduction
  • 1.2Background of study
  • 1.3Problem Statement
  • 1.4Objective of study
  • 1.5Limitation of study
  • 1.6Scope of study
  • 1.7Significance of study
  • 1.8Structure of the research
  • 1.9Definition of terms

Chapter TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

  • 2.1Overview of Short-term electric power forecasting
  • 2.2Historical perspective on electric power forecasting
  • 2.3Methods used in electric power forecasting
  • 2.4Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in power system forecasting
  • 2.5Machine Learning in electric power forecasting
  • 2.6Time series analysis in power system forecasting
  • 2.7Accuracy metrics in power forecasting
  • 2.8Challenges in short-term electric power forecasting
  • 2.9Innovations in power system forecasting
  • 2.10Future trends in electric power forecasting

Chapter THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

  • 3.1Research Methodology Overview
  • 3.2Research Design
  • 3.3Data Collection Methods
  • 3.4Sampling Techniques
  • 3.5Data Analysis Procedures
  • 3.6Model Development Process
  • 3.7Model Validation Techniques
  • 3.8Ethical Considerations

Chapter FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

  • 4.1Data Analysis and Results Overview
  • 4.2Descriptive Analysis of Power Data
  • 4.3Neural Network Model Performance Evaluation
  • 4.4Comparison of Different Forecasting Methods
  • 4.5Impact of Input Variables on Forecast Accuracy
  • 4.6Error Analysis and Residuals Examination
  • 4.7Discussion on Forecasting Outcomes
  • 4.8Recommendations for Future Research

Chapter FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

  • 5.1Summary of Findings
  • 5.2Conclusion
  • 5.3Implications of Study
  • 5.4Contributions to the Field
  • 5.5Limitations and Future Research Directions

Project Abstract

<p> This thesis is a study of short-term electric power forecasting in the Nigerian power system using artificial neural network model. The model is created in the form of a simulation program written with MATLAB tool. The model, a multilayer time delayed feed-forward artificial neural network trained with error back propagation algorithm, was made to study the pre-historical load pattern of a typical Nigerian power system in a supervised training manner. After presenting the model with a reasonable number of training samples, the model could forecast correctly electric power supply in the Nigerian power system 24 hours in advance. An absolute mean error of 4.27% was obtained when the trained neural network model was tested on one week, daily hourly load data of a typical Nigerian power station. This result demonstrates that ANN is a powerful tool for load forecasting. <br></p>

Project Overview

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