A time series analysis of the monthly distribution of rainfall in enugu metropolis
Table Of Contents
Chapter ONE
1.1 Introduction1.2 Background of Study
1.3 Problem Statement
1.4 Objective of Study
1.5 Limitation of Study
1.6 Scope of Study
1.7 Significance of Study
1.8 Structure of the Research
1.9 Definition of Terms
Chapter TWO
2.1 Overview of Rainfall Patterns2.2 Historical Perspectives on Rainfall Studies
2.3 Factors Influencing Rainfall Distribution
2.4 Types of Rainfall Measurements
2.5 Importance of Studying Rainfall Patterns
2.6 Statistical Methods in Rainfall Analysis
2.7 Technology and Rainfall Data Collection
2.8 Climate Change and Rainfall Trends
2.9 Rainfall Variability and Extremes
2.10 Spatial Analysis of Rainfall Distribution
Chapter THREE
3.1 Research Design and Approach3.2 Data Collection Methods
3.3 Sampling Techniques
3.4 Data Analysis Procedures
3.5 Statistical Software Utilization
3.6 Ethical Considerations in Research
3.7 Validity and Reliability Measures
3.8 Research Limitations and Assumptions
Chapter FOUR
4.1 Overview of Research Findings4.2 Monthly Rainfall Distribution Patterns
4.3 Correlation Analysis of Rainfall Data
4.4 Seasonal Variations in Rainfall
4.5 Extreme Rainfall Events
4.6 Comparison with Previous Studies
4.7 Geospatial Mapping of Rainfall
4.8 Discussion on Implications and Applications
Chapter FIVE
5.1 Summary of Research Findings5.2 Conclusion and Recommendations
5.3 Contributions to Existing Knowledge
5.4 Areas for Future Research
5.5 Final Thoughts and Reflections
Project Abstract
It is widely accepted that water supply will be a pressing issue in this century. Thus, position of adequate rainfall in the development of human and natural resources is a worthwhile research work. The data used in this project work was monthly amount of rainfall in Enugu city within the period of (2000 – 2012). A preliminary inspection on the data revealed that the data has no trend but consist of multiplicative seasonal movements. Furthermore, the monthly data was also found to be stationary and serially uncorrelated by the Augmented Dickey Fuller test of unit root and the Autocorrelation test for serial correlation of the error term respectively. The exponential smoothing procedures were adopted for the construction of the best fit model for the prediction of future rainfall pattern in Enugu. This was achieved by algorithms aimed at smoothing out all irregular components inherent in the series. The best fit model parameters were used to predict monthly rainfall distribution for 2013. The result suggested heavy rainfall in general for the year in question with its amplitude in the month of October.
Project Overview
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