Project Abstract

Abstract
This research paper proposes a new monetary regime tailored specifically for small commodity-exporting countries, termed as the "peg the export price" (PEP) regime. The PEP regime suggests that instead of pegging their currency to a foreign currency or a basket of currencies, small commodity-exporting nations should peg their currency to the price of their main export commodity. This proposal aims to provide these countries with a more stable and suitable monetary framework that aligns with the structure of their economies. The PEP regime operates by linking the value of the domestic currency to the price of the primary export product, thereby creating a direct relationship between the exchange rate and the export price. This approach can offer several advantages to small commodity-exporting countries. By pegging their currency to the export price, these nations can potentially reduce exchange rate volatility, mitigate the impact of commodity price fluctuations, and provide a natural hedge against external shocks. Furthermore, the PEP regime can help small commodity-exporting countries in managing their balance of payments and fostering economic stability. By stabilizing the exchange rate based on the export price, these nations can enhance their export competitiveness, attract foreign investment, and promote economic growth. Additionally, the PEP regime may reduce the need for costly foreign exchange interventions and enhance policy credibility by anchoring the currency to a tangible economic variable. Implementing the PEP regime requires a robust institutional framework and effective policy coordination between monetary authorities and relevant stakeholders. Central banks in small commodity-exporting countries would need to closely monitor international commodity prices and adjust the exchange rate accordingly to maintain the peg. Additionally, policymakers should focus on structural reforms, diversification strategies, and prudent fiscal policies to support the effectiveness of the PEP regime over the long term. Overall, the proposed PEP regime offers a novel approach to monetary policy for small commodity-exporting nations, addressing the unique challenges they face due to their reliance on primary commodity exports. By pegging the currency to the export price, these countries can potentially enhance economic stability, reduce vulnerability to external shocks, and create a more resilient and sustainable monetary framework tailored to their specific needs.

Project Overview

The question of the optimal monetary regime for small open economies is still wide open. On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates – monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks – have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting doesn’t work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This paper advances a new proposal called PEP: Peg the Export Price.
Most applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have worked for oil producers over the period 1970-2000. The paths of real oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes. An illustrative
finding is that countries that suffered a declining world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s, would under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as dollar pegs are supposed to do.