Project Abstract

Time series analysis is a statistical technique used to analyze data points collected over time. It is a valuable tool in various fields such as finance, economics, weather forecasting, and signal processing. This research focuses on exploring the methods and applications of time series analysis. The first aspect of time series analysis involves data visualization and exploration. By plotting the data points over time, trends, patterns, and seasonal variations can be identified. Descriptive statistics such as mean, variance, and autocorrelation provide insights into the data's behavior. Next, time series modeling is essential for forecasting future values. Popular models include autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and seasonal decomposition. These models capture the underlying patterns in the data and make predictions based on historical information. Furthermore, the stationarity of the time series is crucial for accurate modeling. Stationarity implies that the statistical properties of the data remain constant over time. Techniques such as differencing can be applied to make the series stationary, facilitating the use of various forecasting models. Another critical aspect of time series analysis is evaluating model performance. This involves comparing forecasted values with actual data points using metrics like mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and forecast accuracy. By assessing model accuracy, researchers can determine the reliability of predictions. Moreover, time series analysis allows for anomaly detection and outlier identification. Sudden deviations from the expected pattern can indicate anomalies that require further investigation. Detecting outliers is essential for maintaining data quality and ensuring the robustness of forecasting models. Additionally, time series analysis is valuable for understanding the relationships between variables over time. Cross-correlation and Granger causality tests can reveal lagged dependencies and directional influences between time series data. This information is crucial for decision-making and identifying causal relationships. In conclusion, time series analysis is a powerful tool for extracting valuable insights from temporal data. By applying statistical techniques, modeling future trends, and evaluating model performance, researchers can make informed decisions and predictions. Understanding the methods and applications of time series analysis is essential for professionals in various fields to leverage the power of time-dependent data effectively.

Project Overview

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

Time series is very important in business analysis, and it enables us to know the estimate of buyers’ demand for the product or service. Time series is different from random samples.

This is true particularly of certain set of economic data such as the cost of living or the consumption of alcohol. Statistical techniques cannot be applied to such data. The aim of this project is to look at method to treat data of this sort and one such method is that of Time Series. Time Series analysis helps to know the future (that is forecasting) has become more important issue in today’s world business environment. Time Series helps deal with the statistical techniques of analyzing past data and projecting them to obtain estimate to future value.

The basic purpose of time series analysis is to give management a convenient method of measuring changes in the business over a period of time and relating these changes to those in the economy. Time Series that measure changes in one’s own business are supplied by the internal records of the company, while information on changes in the whole industry and in business in general will come from various external sources. The special methods of time series analysis will be given detailed treatment in the following chapters.

DEFINITION OF TIME SERIES

A TIME SERIES is a set of observation obtained by measuring a single variable regularly over a period of time. Observation of the variable are usually recorded at equally spaced part in time. For example, the number of patients treated for malaria on monthly basis, daily consumption of electricity etc.

1.2 DEFINITION OF FORECAST

Forecast means prediction that involves explaining events which will occur at some future time. And the process of arriving at such explanation is called forecasting.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The purpose of this study is to carry out the statistical analysis on the sales of forecasting of wheat flour product in Edo State Flour Mill Company Plc for the next two (2) years and ten (10) years sales from…

To be able to know the changes in sales of flour mill per year.

Describing the time series in concise way.

Examining the behaviour of the series.

Forecasting the behaviour of the series in the future.

1.4 SCOPE AND COVERAGE OF THE STUDY

The study shall be an over view of time series and its analysis and it does not intend to go beyond the subject and all statement and expression are being focused on time series. It encompasses the roles, importance, historical background and types of time series and above all forecasting. Emphasis shall be on time series analysis with respect to forecasting. This project work also seek to analyze the previous ideals put above outline objectives.

The material in this work is divided into six chapters. Chapter one deals with the introduction, definition of time series and forecast as well as aims and objectives. Chapter two focuses on the literature review of the subject matter by showing work done by several authors over time. Chapter three deals with trend analysis and its definition reason for studying trends and also ways to measure the components of time series.

Chapter four deals with trend analysis and its definition, reason for studying trends and also ways to measure the components of time series. Chapter five talks about the analysis of the data collected, while chapter six summarizes and concluded the whole work.

1.5 LIMITATIONS AND PROBLEM OF THE STUDY

This basically remains the search for data due to the fact that there was the problem of not at- office by the workers. However, after a series of call backs, I was able to achieve my aims.

It should be clear that this work is purely on academic exercises, and it should be noted that the limitations had no serious effect on this project work.