Home / Economics / A note on forecasting exchange rates using a cluster technique

A note on forecasting exchange rates using a cluster technique

 

Table Of Contents


Chapter ONE

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Background of Study
1.3 Problem Statement
1.4 Objective of Study
1.5 Limitation of Study
1.6 Scope of Study
1.7 Significance of Study
1.8 Structure of the Research
1.9 Definition of Terms

Chapter TWO

2.1 Overview of Exchange Rates
2.2 Traditional Methods of Forecasting Exchange Rates
2.3 Modern Techniques in Forecasting Exchange Rates
2.4 Cluster Techniques in Forecasting Exchange Rates
2.5 Applications of Cluster Techniques in Other Fields
2.6 Critiques of Cluster Techniques in Forecasting
2.7 Case Studies on Forecasting Exchange Rates using Cluster Technique
2.8 Comparison with Other Forecasting Methods
2.9 Challenges in Implementing Cluster Techniques
2.10 Future Trends in Exchange Rate Forecasting

Chapter THREE

3.1 Research Methodology Overview
3.2 Research Design and Approach
3.3 Data Collection Methods
3.4 Sampling Techniques
3.5 Data Analysis Procedures
3.6 Validity and Reliability of Data
3.7 Ethical Considerations in Research
3.8 Limitations of the Research Methodology

Chapter FOUR

4.1 Data Analysis and Interpretation
4.2 Descriptive Statistics of Exchange Rate Data
4.3 Application of Cluster Technique on Exchange Rate Data
4.4 Comparison of Cluster Technique Results with Traditional Methods
4.5 Discussion on Findings
4.6 Implications of Findings
4.7 Recommendations for Future Studies
4.8 Policy Implications

Chapter FIVE

5.1 Summary of Findings
5.2 Conclusion
5.3 Contributions to Knowledge
5.4 Practical Implications
5.5 Recommendations for Practice
5.6 Recommendations for Further Research

Thesis Abstract

In this note, we propose a cluster method as a simple predictive tool to forecast exchange rates (specifically the Japanese Yen and the British Pound against the US Dollar). The general goal in this study is two-fold. First of all, we verify whether or not we can accurately predict the exchange rate movements using the suggested method. Secondly, we use the generated sign predictions to build a simple trading strategy and check if we can obtain above-normal profits in the foreign exchange market. Our results reveal a sign forecasting ability for one-period-ahead which is lost when more periods ahead are considered. On the other hand, our simple trading strategy does not obtain above-normal profits.

Thesis Overview

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